200806131245論專案風險管理﹝下﹞

    論專案風險管理﹝下﹞

    4.          定性風險分析

     

    風險衝擊及復原等級表

    對合約可能的衝擊

    Rating A

    復原方案

    Rating B

    延遲超過6個月

    1

    需向外部單位如高鐵局及銀行團提出復原方案

    1

    增加成本超過10億元

    2

    需外單位採取行動

    2

    延遲3至6個月

    3

    需擬定行動計畫

    3

    增加成本在10億元與一千萬元之間

    4

    緩和方案陳核

    4

    延遲1至3個月

    5

    緩和方案被採用

    5

    增加成本在一千萬元與五百萬元之間

    6

    指示或協調緩和措施

    6

    延遲不到1個月

    7

    執行核准之緩和措施

    7

    增加成本在五百萬元與一百萬元之間

    8

    開始執行緩和措施

    8

    增加成本未超過一百萬元

    9

    緩和措施完成30%以上

    9

    進度落後但對合約衝擊極小

    10

    緩和措施完成或不需要

    10

     

     

    5.          定量風險分析﹝略﹞

     

    6.          風險回應規劃

             風險回應規劃為發展備案及決定行動的流程，以提高機會及降低對專案目標的威脅。此項工作由風險管理經理負責，其內容主要是及時地按照優先度來回應每項已獲同意及資助之風險。

             專案於執行期間針對發生負面之風險或威脅應採取規避、移轉及緩和等三項策略，若有幸碰到對專案目標具正面之風險或機會，則應努力開拓、分享對專案有利之團隊及增強機會發生之機率。

             風險管理經理應詳細填寫風險登錄表，尤其是有關高度及中度風險之所有處理過程，以便後續追蹤及研判。

     

    7.          風險監控

    專案工作應定期並持續地予以監控，以瞭解專案執行期間有無新的及變更中的風險發生。風險監控流程包括辨識、分析與規劃新生風險、持續追蹤已確認的風險及在觀察清單上的風險，再分析既有的風險、監視應變計畫的觸發條件、監視殘留風險，及審查風險回應之執行，同時評估它們的效果。

    風險管理經理應藉由風險登錄表隨時更新之內容，監控本專案工作績效，實施風險再評估，適時的辦理風險稽核，回應專案風險及檢視回應後實際結果，建議緩和風險之矯正行動及預防行動。

     

    8.          參考資料

    PMBOK Guide (Third Version, 2004)

     

    (全文結束)

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    I, a sincere and diligent man, was born in Nanjing, China and grew up in Kaohsiung and Taipei, Taiwan.
    I graduated from a certain university in Taiwan and earned a master degree in civil engineering from an American University. I have ever been a civil engineer for more than thirty-eight years which including 5 year experience of bridge maintenance in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. Fortunately I had joined some of very famous bridge construction projects in Taiwan, such as Guan-Du highway bridge in Taipei and Bih-Tan bridge of second Freeway in Hsin-Tien city. In the years from 1997 to 2009 I had worked with Taiwan High Speed Rail, which has ever been the biggest BOT project in the world. Recently since May of 2010 until the end of 2013 I joined in China High Speed Rail project with a Germany consultant company (DB International) in Zhejiang province.
    I am a man who will try hard to succeed and will not give up when I set a goal.
    Reading, walking, playing basketball and listening music are my major hobbies at my leisure. In the mean time, I like to make friend with and talk various topics with the person who is from any place of the world.

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