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下面附上一則新聞讓大家了解時事

今年以來,由於原油價格仍持續下跌,委內瑞拉國內的經濟形勢不斷惡化。馬杜羅宣佈全國戒嚴,但這一舉措無助於緩解局勢。委內瑞拉執政黨能否力挽狂瀾?

中新網援引新京報報導,曾寄希望為南美第一條高鐵的拉蒂納科-阿納科鐵路現在幾乎荒廢。這條位於委內瑞拉的高鐵原本可以成為中國高鐵技術和中國資金走向世界的標誌,但現在卻成為爛尾工程。

該高鐵項目合同總額高達75億美元,全長400多公里,預計每年運送500萬人次乘客和980萬噸貨物。項目於2009年開工建設,原計劃2012年完工。

中國社科院拉美所副研究員、委內瑞拉問題專家王鵬說:「這條鐵路早就出現問題,癥結主要在委方。他們的支付能力存在問題,工程價值75億美元讓他們有點吃不消。委內瑞拉主要依靠石油收入獲得外匯,現在原油價格暴跌,經濟情況很糟糕,因此外匯儲備少,支付能力差。」

委內瑞拉經濟結構單一,經濟收入主要依靠原油出口,大部分生活必需品都通過進口。如今原油價格持續走低,外匯收入減少,必然影響進口,食品等物資稀缺在所難免。

目前委內瑞拉民眾正遭受通貨膨脹惡化,食品短缺的艱難局面,去年,委內瑞拉經濟萎縮5.7%,官方的通貨膨脹率評估也最高達到180%。民眾大量湧向超市哄搶食品,為此,委內瑞拉政府不得不動用軍隊看守,並採取排號形式進入超市。

雪上加霜的是,因遭遇持續乾旱,供水和供電也面臨困難。為了緩解能源危機,委內瑞拉政府實施公務員每週工作2天、休息5天的臨時措施,還將時鐘回撥半小時以充分利用日間時光、全國每天輪流斷電4小時。

委內瑞拉是世界已探明石油儲量第一大國,在原油價格持續走高時代,委內瑞拉人也曾過著幸福生活。如今近況窘迫,除了原油價格暴跌帶來的重創,其他誘因則要追溯至查韋斯時代。

在過去油價高企的10年,委內瑞拉石油工業佔其國內生產總值的30%、出口收入的90%以及財政收入的50%。利用石油帶來的鉅額收入,查韋斯實施聚焦窮人需求的惠民政策,大搞「羅賓遜計劃」、「深入貧民區計劃」、「裏瓦斯計劃」等多項社會福利,僅就住房而言,2015年底已免費給窮人交付第100萬套住房。

王鵬表示,雖然這些想法代表中下層人民利益,實施起來卻面臨很多問題,政府的良好意願由於各種因素,被扭曲為不停地用花錢爭取民意支援。

除了社會福利項目,查韋斯還大力實施國有化政策,將包括石油在內的戰略產業國有化(政府佔60%以上股份),帶來了效率低下等問題,並最終被世界原油價格暴跌所引爆。

「政府雖然希望將石油收入造福於民,但得不到貫徹,最終變為國家對經濟的過度干預,過於強調公平忽視效率,大搞國有化,企業效率嚴重下降。石油業發展不夠,雖然擁有最大石油儲備,但產量長期徘徊不前。」王鵬解釋說。

面對這樣的局面,馬杜羅於今年1月宣佈委內瑞拉進入為期60天「經濟緊急狀態」,以允許政府使用議會批准之外的儲備資金、保證物資供給、繼續發展各類社會民生項目。馬杜羅還採取其他一系列措施,包括貨幣小幅度有限貶值,汽油價格上漲,降低政府對汽油補貼等。

王鵬認為這些措施的成效有限。如果實行大幅度汽油漲價和貨幣貶值,最直接受害者就是窮困階層。委內瑞拉政府寄希望於石油價格上漲,緩和政府財政壓力,但這在短期內不太可能,目前大宗商品處於低谷期,油價很難反彈。

經濟下行導致委內瑞拉國內各種矛盾尖銳交織在一起,這些措施引爆了民眾的不滿情緒。近日,委內瑞拉多座城市出現示威,部分民眾在示威中哄搶商鋪、超市和運送食品的貨車。對此,馬杜羅表示,反對派正有意製造混亂和暴力,圖謀政變以推翻現政府。

《紐約時報》認為,馬杜羅雖然繼承了查韋斯的路線,但他卻沒有查韋斯那樣的領袖魅力和統治能力。

5月13日,馬杜羅宣佈延長之前面向全國的「經濟緊急狀態」,以應對國內和國外勢力企圖推翻國家政權的企圖,他指責美國秘密煽動對其發動政變。

目前,反對派正著眼發起罷免馬杜羅的公投。按該國憲法,若想發起公投,反對派必須首先徵集到1%選民的有效簽名,然後還需徵集20%選民的有效簽名才能確定公投日期。

去年,反對派以壓倒性優勢贏得議會選舉,他們表示目前已徵集到100多萬選民簽名,要求啟動罷免馬杜羅的全民公投。對於反對派是否會借機上臺,王鵬說,目前政治不確定性很大,反對派力量增強,他們上臺機會是有的,但如果今年想發起公投,難度不小。雖然委內瑞拉是總統制國家,但議會權力很大,反對派還可以通過頒布法令制約總統的行政權力。

為了解決國內危機,委內瑞拉政府積極尋求外部援助,委內瑞拉政府官員近日表示,已同中國拍賣達成新的「石油換貸款」協議。5月17日,中國外交部表示,考慮到當前國際油價變動,雙方同意按照平等互利的原則,探討增強兩國融資合作機制靈活性的有效方式。

委內瑞拉是中國主要石油供應國,兩國過去10多年間保持良好合作關係,對於未來前景,王鵬認為,中委關係是戰略合作,不是針對一屆政府或一個政黨。從長遠來看,前景良好,兩國合作有現實基礎,即能源合作作為主軸所發揮的作用。他說,委內瑞拉的石油儲量很大,而傳統大客戶美國對石油需求在下降,委內瑞拉不僅要尋找替代市場,也要讓石油出口多元化。在這種背景下,中國作為進口國的作用凸顯出來,而中國有委內瑞拉需要的資金和技術,王鵬稱,由此可見,兩國合作將是長期的。
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