201607081453[流行] 團購Bonjour Weekend Graphic Tee - 273073





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下面附上一則新聞讓大家了解時事

工商時報【康和大力推薦證券總監廖繼弘】

台股3月份一度突破年線(12月均線),但4月份馬上拉回,指數延著年線走低,12月RSI在3月份彈上50後,馬上又拉回至50以下,9月KD值交叉向上,但開口不大,5月份又轉折收斂於50附近,由1月7627低點展開的中長期反彈行情,無力扭轉年線趨勢,只是跌破年線後的技術性反彈修正,年線在5月份及6月份仍扣抵9,701點及9,323點以上指數走低,顯示中長期調整格局尚未改變。

而市場憂心的520總統就職演說,可能影響台股表現,但由於普遍反應比預期好,內容對於九二會談事實表示尊重,國台辦也僅回應本次就職演說是未完成的答卷,並未因此做出強烈反擊,可以中性偏好作為解讀,未來陸方將會透過繼續觀察來尋找答案,預期短時間內兩岸關係不會有太大改變,台股仍以回歸基本面為主。

雖然政治因素會影響經濟發展,520後兩岸關係和經貿互動如何,將影響台股短期走勢,不過就如外資券商說的,庫克對台股的影響更重要,下半年蘋果新手機銷售能否重返成長,帶動台股概念股業績回升,台灣出口能否好轉,基本面動能轉強,才是台股中長期調整後,能否轉多的關鍵。

從台灣出口連15黑,第一季經濟成長率下修為-0.84%,全年經濟成長率面臨保1壓力,蘋果業績出現13年來首次負成長,影響台股相關概念股業績,加上匯兌損失影響,上市櫃公司第1季總獲利創近12季新低,年減25%,以年增率來看,已是連續三季衰退,顯示台股基本面動能偏弱,指數在3月份能向上突破年線,主要是資金行情發酵,外資匯入買超帶動台股上漲,因此市場普遍認為是波無基之彈的反彈行情。

以證交所公佈的資料,4月份平均指數為8,567點,股價淨值比為1.46倍,5月份低點7,999.98點,股價淨值比已修正至1.4倍以下,低檔具實質價值支撐,但因上市櫃公司獲利呈現負成長,自然欠缺推動股市向上的成長力道,只能靠資金行情推升,尤其內資近年來相對保守,台股漲跌全看外資買賣超而定,只要資金行情退潮,指數容易快速拉回整理。

股市是經濟櫥窗,股價趨勢通常會領先基本面而行,股市轉為多頭市場,表示基本面是成長及強勁的,但股市要由空轉多,加權指數要突破年線向上且年線的趨勢要轉為上揚助漲的;前波指數反彈至8,840高點,9月KD值從低檔交叉向上,但是指數突破年線後馬上拉回,年線走低的趨勢並未扭轉向上,12月份RSI也彈不上50以上站穩,表示這只是中長期的反彈行情而已。

中長期波段性指標(月DMI指標)的-DI在去年7月向上突破+DI走高,出現中長期轉弱訊號後,雖然在7,203低點反彈至8,871高點時,-DI曾由高檔拉回,但-DI始終維持在+DI之上,5月份兩者開口又漸有擴大現象,且ADX漸上升至20以上,表示中長空趨勢並未扭轉,且空頭力道是較強的,短期指數能否力守10年線上下支撐反彈,不要讓-DI和+DI的開口又擴大,ADX明顯上升,攸關中長期走勢強弱。

除了年線趨勢走低外,20日線也向下跌破季線,季線扣抵8,282點至8,812點間高指數區走低,和20日線將形成死亡交叉架構,意謂中期仍需一段整理時間,大盤能維持10年線至年線間反覆震盪擴底走勢已不錯,要等年線下半年扣抵低指數區,趨勢有機會走平向上,配合出口及經濟成長率轉為正成長,蘋果新手機開始拉貨,電子產業旺季來臨,多頭較能轉守為攻。

8,840點和8,743點兩高點,和8,634點頸線間M頭頭部形成,依型態等幅下跌滿足點推估,指數支撐約在8,032點,由去年8月的7,203點及今年1月的7,627點兩低點連結之上升線支撐約在7,950點上下,10年線緩升至7,938點,低檔線型支撐漸強,8,000點上下具較強支撐,短線9日KD值從低檔交叉向上,進入短彈循環,反彈力道和空間要看外資買超的強度和成交量能否放大而定,上檔半年線8,324點至8,436點頸線形成壓力。

目前國際股市大都是中期修正走勢,台股短彈空間可能受限,建議反彈減碼業績不理想的弱勢股,中期留意第一季財報佳、5月營收成長及展望正向之業績成長股和高殖利率個股,如車用電子、生技醫療(新藥和獲利好的醫材股)、國防(航太相關)、物聯網、智慧精密機械(工具機相關)和文創等相關業績股,等待大盤的9周KD值修正至低檔轉折向上,520後兩岸關係以及經貿交流能夠持續穩定,台股基本面逐漸好轉之時,才能夠積極操作。



















富士通FUJITSU 智慧型手機專用全罩式耳機麥克風( 粉紅)MA-11PK


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特賣







賠售出清

【PHILIPS 飛利浦】Foldie SHL5505頭戴式耳麥(藍綠棕)
















【PHILIPS 飛利浦】Foldie SHL5505頭戴式耳麥(米白棕)
















折價卷>【PHILIPS 飛利浦】DJ監控頭戴式耳機SHL3105(白色)




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