俄羅斯成為近來能源回檔的受害者

按:

俄羅斯股市今年受惠能源頗多，之前曾經一度暴漲80%左右，但近來油價回檔也讓他從高點回跌20%。基本上目前仍然看好俄羅斯，但油價飆高到100塊以上就要特別注意隨時要準備出脫東歐基金部位，因此要賺石油的財富最好還是買美國的石油實體資產ETF比較好(UGA、USO皆可)，因為油價暴漲到後面包括能源股在內的股票都會掛掉，但只要油價漲我就可以繼續追蹤這價格繼續賺錢，兩種方式誰賺得比較久就不言而喻了。

下文轉貼自彭博社http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a_PbXfujO9zc

 Russia Stocks Fall 20% in World’s First Bear Market Since March

By Michael Patterson and Laura Cochrane

June 22 (Bloomberg) -- Russia’s Micex Index tumbled more than 20 percent from its 2009 peak, becoming the world’s first benchmark equity index to enter a bear market since global stocks began rallying in March.

The index of ruble-denominated shares slid 7.8 percent to 937.98 as of 6:46 p.m. in Moscow, bringing its decline since June 1 to 22 percent. The 30-company gauge led a worldwide retreat in stocks this month on concern the global recession will persist for longer than investors anticipated.

The Micex, which rallied as much as 135 percent since October, is tumbling this month after reaching the most expensive level relative to profit estimates since January 2007, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Russia’s economy may shrink 7.5 percent this year as industrial production slumps, unemployment rises and investors pull capital from the world’s largest energy exporter, the World Bank said today. That compares with the Washington-based lender’s forecast for a 2.9 percent contraction in the global economy.

“The market needs to pause because it has been going up too much,” said Nicholas Field, who helps manage about $11 billion in emerging-market stocks at Schroders Plc in London, including Russian equities. “Nothing goes in a straight line.”

The MSCI All-Country World Index slid 5.8 percent from its 2009 high, paring its gain from a six-year low on March 9 to 39 percent.

“Some of Russia’s main industrial production data was disappointing and is a reminder that the real economy is going to be impacted quite severely this year,” said Michael Wang, an emerging markets strategist at Morgan Stanley in London. “There is not going to be a quick V-shaped recovery in Russia.”

Brazil, India, China

After Russia, Croatian stocks are the closest to a bear- market decline since the global equity rally began. The Balkan nation’s Crobex index is down 15 percent from its 2009 high. A bear market is defined as a decline of 20 percent or more.

Brazil’s Bovespa Index has dropped 8.5 percent from its peak this year, while India’s Bombay Stock Exchange Composite Index slid 7.4 percent. The Shanghai Composite Index closed today at its highest level since July 28.

The Micex’s rally from its four-year low on Oct. 24 to its peak this month was the steepest among stock benchmarks in the world’s 70 biggest markets. Investors poured money into the Russian market as oil more than doubled and the nation’s currency, the ruble, recovered from a 19 percent slide against the dollar last year.

Oil has dropped 8.6 percent from its high this year, while the ruble has weakened 2.3 percent against the dollar since June 1.

To contact the reporters on this story: Michael Patterson in London at mpatterson10@bloomberg.net; Laura Cochrane in London at lcochrane3@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: June 22, 2009 11:07 EDT